Scotiabank Investment Thesis

Economic Outlook in Key Markets Growth in Pacific Alliance expected to remain above that of Canada and the U.S. 2019 AND 2020 REAL GDP GROWTH FORECAST (%) Real GDP (Annual % Change) Country 2000-17 avg. 2018 2019f 2020f Mexico 2.2 2.0 1.4 1.3 Peru 5.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 Chile 3.9 4.0 3.2 3.2 Colombia 3.9 2.6 3.4 3.8 PACS simple avg. 3.7 3.2 3.0 3.1 2000-17 avg. 2018 2019f 2020f Canada 2.1 1.8 1.5 2.0 U.S. 2.0 2.9 2.5 1.7 Source: Scotiabank Economics. Forecasts as of May 9, 2019. Scotiabank® 33 33

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