2023 Outlook & Conclusion
1.
2023 Outlook
Trading conditions remain supportive as we progress our strategic objectives
Refining margin cracks, GRM, Crude Premia¹
(US$/bbl)
60
50
50
40
40
Convenience & Mobility
•
•
•
VIVA
EnergyAustralia
Convenience sales to support earnings growth following successful completion of
Coles Express acquisition.
Fuel demand expected to remain robust, despite changes to working modes.
OTR acquisition expected to complete in 2H2023².
Commercial & Industrial
Earnings growth likely to moderate following exceptionally strong 1Q2023, but full-
year outlook remains positive.
30
20
10
0
-10
•
Growth across both specialties products and main fuels business supported by
solid economic activity, diverse customer base, lower freight.
Refining
Regional refining margins have weakened in April, driven by: OPEC+ crude oil
cuts, lower global diesel demand, minimal impacts from sanctions on Refined
products and higher than expected exports from China.
Refinery currently undergoing major planned cyclical maintenance outage for
CDU#4, Platformer#3, HDS#2 and associated units, to be completed by June-end.
Jun-19
Mar-20
Dec-20
Sep-21
Jun-22
Mar-23
•
Gasoline
Diesel
Jet
GRM
Crude Premia
Longer-term outlook remains positive with periods of volatility: shortage of refining
capacity globally with new, large-scale refineries hard to justify.
Cracks are calculated by Viva Energy by taking the finished product prices and deducting the quoted crude price (100% dated Brent). Original data source: Bloomberg, Platts - source
changed end-2019. GRM calculated as average for each respective financial year period. Crude premia are calculated by Viva Energy by taking the quoted tapis crude prices less the 100%
dated Brent crude price. Original data source: Bloomberg, Platts - source changed end-2019.
2.
Subject to regulatory approvals.
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