Investor Presentaiton
KBC
Outstanding ECL for geopolitical and emerging risks amounts to 429m EUR
14
of 74
Y-O-Y CHANGE IN THE OUTSTANDING ECL FOR
COVID, GEOPOLITICAL & EMERGING RISKS
in m EUR; negative sign is a release
Y-o-y ECL: +140m EUR
413
16
-34
371
289
-255
42
FY21 - Covid risks Geopolitical Acquisition
ECL Covid
Raiff BU
and
emerging
risks
429
Write-off
FY22 - ECL
Geopolitical
& emerging
risks
YTD negative P&L impact of 158m EUR
9M22
4Q22
OUTSTANDING ECL BY RISK DRIVERS AT YE22 (and q-o-q change)
in m EUR; negative sign is a release
A No direct
subsidiaries
B Very limited direct
credit exposure
C Indirect credit
impact:
counterparties
D Emerging risks
(secondary credit
impact):
portfolios/
(sub)sectors
E Macroeconomic
7.
scenarios
Outstanding ECL
KBC has no direct subsidiaries in Russia, Belarus or Ukraine
Direct transfer risk exposure amounts to 29m EUR ECL,
mainly concentrated in commercial exposure on Russian banks
(due to recoveries, down from 34m EUR² after 9M22 or -5m EUR q-o-q).
No exposure on Russian sovereign debt
Counterparties-at-risk: (total client credit exposure at group level)
Corp & SME with >20% sales, cost or profit in R, B or U
Corp & SME directly impacted by possible disruption of Russian oil and gas supplies
→ Outstanding exposure: 2.8bn EUR
→ ECL: 39m EUR (down from 49m EUR after 9M22 or-10m EUR q-o-q, due mainly to the list of
Belgian clients being updated)
Vulnerable clients in retail and non-retail portfolios/(sub)sectors impacted by
newly emerging risks (energy prices/supply bottlenecks/higher cost of living and rising interest
rates)
→ Outstanding exposure: 11.3bn EUR
→ ECL: 304m EUR (up from 255m EUR² after 9M22 or +49m EUR q-o-q, driven mainly by the
sectors that are vulnerable to the energy crisis being refined)
Downward revision of macroeconomic forecasts, partly compensated by slightly
improved probabilities to 60%/5%/35% (for base-case/optimistic/pessimistic scenario)
→ ECL: 57m EUR (up from 49m EUR after 9M22 or +8m EUR q-o-q)
A+B+C+D+E
=
ECL: 429m EUR (+42m EUR q-o-q)
Aligned with the credit risk view of our loan portfolio as reported in the quarterly financial statements
2. Including Raiffeisenbank Bulgaria, +6m (B) and +10m (D)
Highlights
Profit & Loss Capital & Liquidity
Looking forward
BU & FY22 view
Company profile
KBC Strategy
Sustainability
Asset quality
MREL & FundingView entire presentation