Investor Presentaiton
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
Group
Australian Banking
NZ Banking
NAB Wealth
Group Asset Quality
Capital and Funding
Environmental, Social and Governance
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Glossary
AUSTRALIA REGIONAL OUTLOOK
MOCKREL
HILL
CKRE
National
Australia
Bank
• Real GDP growth was moderate in Q2, though the year-ended rate
lifted to 3.3% - the fastest pace since mid-2012
Activity remains variable by industry and state. Non-mining sectors
(especially services) robust, but mining related industries struggling
• The NAB Business Survey is showing above-average conditions for
the non-mining economy, though this has moderated recently
• Real GDP growth forecast is solid at 3.0% in 2016 and 2.8% in
2017, with support from LNG exports and growth in net services
exports (including tourism and education). Domestic demand growth
to remain subdued as mining contracts further, despite support from
dwelling construction. There is potential upside from state
government spending and farm GDP
• Real GDP is forecast to slow to 2.6% in 2018 due to LNG exports
flattening, dwelling construction cycle downturn and fading benefit
from currency depreciation since 2013. There is potential upside
from further lowering of interest rates and currency depreciation
• Nominal GDP growth forecast is below historical average due to
subdued commodity prices and weak wages growth. This will
continue to challenge corporate profits, government revenue, and
Australia's AAA rating
⚫ Amidst a weak outlook for inflation, we expect two further rate cuts
from the RBA in mid-2017. Further deterioration could prompt non-
conventional monetary policy tools (e.g. asset purchases)
• Credit growth is forecast to remain solid. APRA's imposed 'speed
limit' has slowed investor housing credit growth, but this has been
largely offset by owner-occupier credit growth
ECONOMIC INDICATORS (%)
CY14
CY15
CY16(f) CY17(f) CY18(f)
GDP growth1
2.7
2.4
3.0
2.8
2.6
Unemployment²
6.1
5.8
5.7
5.6
5.6
19
Core Inflation³
2.2
2.0
1.6
1.8
2.0
Cash rate²
SYSTEM GROWTH (%)4
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
1.0
FY14
FY15
FY16(f) FY17(f) FY18(f)
Housing
6.0
7.2
7.0
6.7
6.4
Personal
0.8
1.0
(0.5)
(0.1)
1.5
Business
2.6
5.1
6.3
5.0
6.2
Total lending
4.5
6.1
6.3
5.8
6.1
System deposits
6.7
7.0
6.1
6.7
6.7
(1)
Average for year ended December quarter on average of previous year
(2)
As at December quarter
(3)
December quarter on December quarter of previous year
(4)
Average for year-ended September (bank fiscal year end) on average of previous year
113
National
Australia
BankView entire presentation