Commercial Bank Financial Performance Report Q1 2022
Dec-18
Apr-19
Turkey Macroeconomics
Elevated Inflation / Economic Policy Crucial
120
•
Following a GDP growth of 11% YoY in 2021, Turkey is considerably
strong on the real sector, while the consumer side is lagging. GDP
growth is expected to moderate to potential levels in 2022.
110
100
•
CAD to GDP declined to 1.7% in 2021. Base effects may result in a rise
in CAD, while tourism revenues will be highly crucial in 2022.
90
90
•
.
TRY depreciation, deterioration in pricing and high commodity prices
are putting additional pressure on inflation. Disinflationary factors will
start to be effective in late 2022 to below 50% level.
CBRT's unorthodox policy actions were effective to stabilize the
volatilities in FX market. Market expects CBRT to keep rates stable.
As long as the macro prudential measures are effective, market
sentiment would be under control. However, changing global
monetary policies may put pressure on market sentiment.
80
60
70
0
60
60
50
CAD (USD billion)
-40
-30
-35.5
-28.3
Exports: 21%
-20
Imports: 42%
-10
*2022 Q1-yoy
0
10
20
19.0
2.0
10.1
30
40
50
CAD 12m cum.
49.5
60
Aug-19
Dec-19
Apr-20
Aug-20
Dec-20
Apr-21
Aug-21
Dec-21
120
-21.8
100
-14.0
80
60
40
30.2
33.3
20
0
Feb-22
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
di
%
Dec-19
Feb-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Real Sector Confidence
TR PMI
Cap. Util.
Consumer Confidence
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Inflation
CPI
61.1
PPI
115.0
48.4
Sep-19
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
50.0
Jun-21
Aug-21
Oct-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Mar-22
24
55
Leading Indicators
79.94
100.21
99.64
93.56View entire presentation