Investor Presentaiton
FY20 Grains and Oils outlook
Market fundamentals
Large parts of east coast Australia (ECA), particularly
northern NSW and southern QLD, affected by
drought in 2019-20 cropping season.
• FY20 ECA winter crop production (1) estimate of
11.5mmt, (FY19: 6.5mmt), skewed to Victoria and
southern NSW.
Minimal exportable surplus in ECA as domestic
market secures supply.
• Grain continuing to be imported (trans-shipped) from
Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria to
ECA ports.
• 2019/20 Australian canola crop production estimate
of ~2.3mmt (ECA 1.0mmt, WA/SA 1.3mmt)(2).
GrainCorp FY20 outlook
• Year-to-date (3) ECA grain receivals (4) of 0.4mmt.
• Minimal grain exports expected in FY20.
• Continuation of significant levels of grain imports (trans-
shipments) from WA, SA and VIC into GrainCorp ports.
New rail contacts effective for FY20, providing flexibility to
align with grain volumes and with minimal take-or-pay
requirement.
•
Crop Production Contract in effect for FY20 (see Slide 21).
Continue to diversify grain origination through
GrainsConnect Canada and Ukraine.
Capturing benefits of Grains and Oils integration,
announced 4 April 2019.
• Pressure on crush margins due to low Australian canola
supply.
1. Average of ABARES' (Sep 2019) and ACF's (Nov 2019) ECA production estimates for wheat, barley, canola and chickpeas.
Average of ABARES' (Sep 2019) and ACF's (Nov 2019) production estimates for canola.
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2.
3.
1 October 2019 to 13 Nov 2019.
4.
Tonnes received up-country and direct-to-port.
GrainCorp
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