Prepared for Utah Higher Education Assistance Authority
Probability of each outcome
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
do go
0%
Wealth accumulation at
age 18
40
35
45
NNA & O G
55
50
Less than
$6
30.79
30
27.53
28.62
25
20
Moderate
Target Enrollment
Portfolio
Aggressive
$6-10
$10-14
$14-18
$18-22
Prepared for: Utah Higher Education Assistance Authority
Evaluating proposed Target Enrollment Portfolio relative to current moderate and
aggressive portfolios: Wealth accumulation and downside risk
35%
Simulation results: Wealth accumulation at age 18
$22-26
$26-30
$30-34
Real wealth accumulated at age 18
Probability of 5% decline in
any year
IMPORTANT: The projections and other information generated by the VCMM regarding the likelihood of various investment outcomes are hypothetical in nature, do not reflect actual investment results, and are not
guarantees of future results. Distribution of return outcomes from the VCMM are derived from 10,000 simulations for each modeled asset class. Simulations are as of June 30, 2020. Results from the model may vary
with each use and over time. For more information, see the "Important information" slides.
Notes: These probabilities were calculated by the Vanguard Capital Markets Model (VCMM) and applying projected asset class returns. Annual contributions are made at the beginning of each year, for a total of 18 contributions.
All figures are adjusted for inflation. For details on simulation methodology assumptions used here, see the Appendix in Vanguard's 529 methodology
white paper When Age Meets Risk Tolerance: Best Practices for 529 Investing.
Source: Vanguard, based on VCMM simulations as of March 31, 2019.
For institutional use only. Not for distribution to retail investors. 19
$34-38
$38-42
$42-46
$46-50
$50-54
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
12.9%
12.0%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
|||
16.7%
13.8%
0.0%
Moderate
Target Enrollment
Portfolio
Aggressive
$54-58
$58-62
â– Moderate
More than
$62
Target
Enrollment
Portfolio
AggressiveView entire presentation