Financial and Mortgage Portfolio Overview
Highlights
After a 7.1% contraction in 2020, the
Icelandic economy recovered strongly
in 2021, with GDP growth measuring
GDP and contribution of its subcomponents
Volume change from prior year (%)
Export-driven GDP growth following robust growth in demand
GDP growth rapid in 2022 but slower in coming years
GDP, domestic demand, and external trade
Volume change from prior year (%)
15
15
4.3%
Growth was driven mainly by domestic
demand. Exports also picked up
strongly, albeit outpaced by import
growth
12
12
9
ISB Research (forecast published in
May-2022) expects GDP growth at
5.0% in 2022, the fastest growth rate
since 2016
6
9
5.0
4.3
2.7 2.6
6
3
5.0
4.3
2.7 2.6
3
Exports take over from domestic
demand as the main catalyst of growth,
with a rapid recovery of tourism and an
increase in other exports. Growing
consumption and investment also fuel
GDP growth in 2022
0
0
-3
-3
-6
-6
For 2023, GDP growth is forecast to
measure 2.7%, with exports once again
-9
-9
the main driver, although growth in
exports as well as domestic demand
-12
will ease year-on-year
-12
-15
For 2024, GDP growth is projected at
2.6% as export growth eases further
and tighter economic policy and supply
constraints slow the pace of growth
-15
-18
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
-18
If either or both the Ukraine war and the
COVID-19 endgame put severe
pressure on the global economy in the
coming term, it could weaken the
Icelandic economy further ahead
Imports
Investment
Exports
Inventory chg.
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
Public consumption
Priv.consumption
Net exports
National expenditure
GDP
GDP
Sources: Statistics Iceland, ÍSB Research.
38
August-September 2022View entire presentation