FY24 Financial Guidance Update
BLUE BIRD
Type C & D School Bus Industry
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
Number of school age children
1995
Historical Registrations
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Industry avg size is 30,500 new units annually based on Polk registrations
ā Total fleet of school buses is ~515,000 units and average age is about 10 years.
Industry size is driven by:
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
-Long Term Avg. ('85-'19)
2009
Mean: 30,600
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Age of existing fleet - most states set 15 years as a replacement target
Source: R.L. Polk New Registrations, based on Type C/D school buses & non-school buses in US/CAN registered thru Dec. 2023
Average ridership per bus
Funding ā primarily from property tax
FY2023 industry expected to be ~27k units as industry production capacity is still constrained by supplier shortages;
core funding and demand is healthy at pre-pandemic order levels
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