Nigeria Poverty Assessment 2022

CLIMATE AND CONFLICT SHOCKS WERE PROLIFERATING IN NIGERIA EVEN BEFORE COVID-19, BUT SOCIAL PROTECTION IS SCANT 14°N- Conflict events with fatalities in Nigeria, 2000-2020 2000-2005 2005-2010 Climate and conflict shocks were proliferating in Nigeria even before COVID-19; especially in places where poor Nigerians live 12°N- 10°N- 8°N- 6°N- 4°N- 2010-2015 2015-2020 14°N- 12°N- 10°N- 8°N- 6°N- 4°N- 4ºE 6°E 8°E 10°E 12°E 14°E 4ºE 6°E 8°E 10°E 12°E 14°E Fatal conflict events 1 10 100 1000 1751 Source: ACLED and World Bank estimates. NIGERIA THE WORLD BANK IBRD⚫IDA WORLD BANK GROUP Further shocks continue to emerge; with the effects of COVID-19 persisting, the Ukraine conflict could impact the price of key commodities Mechanisms to insure against these shocks for Nigerian households remain limited, despite current efforts to expand; in 2018/19, less than 2 percent of Nigerians lived in a household enrolled in the National Social Safety Nets Project (NASSP), and less than 4 percent of households received any cash transfers during the COVID-19 crisis This exposure to shocks has led to dangerous coping strategies - such as scaling back education and reducing food consumption – which could have negative long-run consequences for human capital 6

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