1H24 Financial Results
The Australian economy
Higher cost of living impacting consumers
The cash rate hiking cycle has been large¹
RBA cash rate
Consumer sentiment weak, consumption slowing²
Consumer sentiment
%
Index
%
450
May
2022
110
Consumer spend patterns shifting³
Household spending per capita (index = 100, Q1 19)
Discretionary consumption
20
140
Per capita annual consumption (LHS)
105
400
Aug
350
May
2002
15
130
100
120
10
95
1994
300
110
250
Oct
5
90
Essential
consumption
Nov
100
85
200
2009
0
1999
90
80
150
-5
80
100
75
-10
Consumer sentiment (RHS)
50
70
70
0
-15
60
65
1
256
511
766 1,021 1,276 1,531 1,786 2,041
Days since first rate hike
-20
50
60
Dec 00
Dec 05
Dec 10
Dec 15
Dec 20
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20
Dec 21
Dec 22
Dec 23
More recent data showing continued softening4
CBA Household Spending Intentions
Savings rate fallen but stock remains high5
Household savings (rate and deviation from average $bn)
%
%
%
40
20
24
$Abn
70
Annual (LHS)
30
15
20
10
0
پہلہ
10
12
Savings rate (LHS)
35
5
0
0
-10
-5
Monthly (RHS)
-20
-10
Deviation from average
savings (RHS)
2 4 3 3 22170
RBA policy transmission more direct in Australia6
Outstanding mortgage rates lift
ppt
Australia
Canada
NZ
UK
US
-12
-35
13 5
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20
Dec 21
Dec 22
Dec 23
Dec 07
Dec 12
Dec 17
Dec 22
7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
No. of months since rate rise
25
1. Source: RBA, CBA. 2. Source: Westpac / Melbourne Institute, ABS. 3. Source: ABS. 4. Source: CBA. 5. Source ABS, CBA. 6. Source: Bloomberg, RBNZ, RBA, BOE, BOC, CBA.
137View entire presentation