Canadian Housing Market Financial Analysis
20
Price Growth by Dwelling Type
Single Family
■Townhouse
Apartment
■Composite
Canadian Housing Market
Engineered soft landing, stability expected in 2019
⚫ National: Sales and prices have rebounded and market conditions
are in equilibrium¹:
О
Average sales prices have increased in two consecutive months.
Composite MLS Home Price Index2 is stable (top right chart)
Sales-to-new listings ratio at 54.7% in April 2019, well within the
44-64% range consistent with balanced housing demand and
supply
• Greater Toronto: Conditions are largely balanced, which indicate
steady near-term price gains
• Greater Vancouver: Sales activity remains weak after new taxes
came into effect on January 1, 2019 (bottom right chart). Expect a
return to positive price and sales gains later this year supported by
strong job creation and immigration
20
15
10
5
0
MLS Home Price
Index, aggregate,
-5
y/y % change
2017
140
Canada
Mar-19
Apr-19 Apr-19
120
m/m*
m/m*
y/y**
Sales (% change)
2.3
3.6
4.2
100
New listings (% change)
3.4
2.7
2.8
Average price (% change)
1.4
1.4
0.3
80
Mar-19
Apr-19
60
Sales-to-new listings ratio (level)*
54.3
60
54.8
Months inventory (level)*
5.5
5.3
40
*Seasonally adjusted **Not seasonally adjusted
2018
2019
Toronto & Vancouver Home Sales
home sales, 000s of units
annualized, SA
Greater Toronto
میون
Greater Vancouver
20
Actual
10-year avg.
0
10
11
12
13
14
15
16 17 18
19
1 Sales and listings figures reported in seasonally-adjusted m/m terms, while MLS HPI growth rates reported as non-seasonally-adjusted y/y. Data as of April, 2019
2 Measure of real estate price appreciation that removes distortions related to variations in the mix of sales across unit types
3 Sources for charts and table: Scotiabank Economics, CREA.
Scotiabank®
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