Investor Presentaiton
Prudent monetary policy implemented by independent regulator
Medium-term
consumer inflation
target: 5%+/-1%
Ukraine's
international
reserves reached
a 6-year high as
of September
2019
Comments
The NBU pursues tight monetary policy with key policy rate
of 18.0% preserved since Sep 2018 until Apr 2019 when a
cycle of key policy rate cuts has commenced and it was
gradually reduced to 16.5% in Sep 2019
According to the NBU, steadily decreasing inflation
enables the regulator to carry out the mentioned cycle
of key policy rate cuts
Owing to fairly tight monetary conditions the regulator expects
to bring inflation to its medium-term target range (5% +/-
1%) in 2020
The international reserves grew by 0.8% (m-o-m) in
August 2019 to US$ 22.0bn mainly due NBU net FX
purchase (US$ 299m) and revaluation of financial instruments
(US$ 133m)
UAH/US$ exchange rate dynamics
35
30
25
10
2505
15
سسل
Consumer price index (CPI) change and key policy rate¹
CPI, %
Key policy rate, %
Actual CPI change, % (y-o-y)
CPI change targets
14
18.0
18.0
18
17.0
16.5
16
12%±3%
16.4
12.5
13.1
8%±2%
10.0
10
8
6.9
4
9.1
6%+2%
5%±1%
12
NO 006+2O
III.2019
IV.2019
1.2020
II.2020
III.2020
IV.2020
II.2019
III.2016
IV.2016
1.2017
II.2017
III.2017
IV.2017
1.2018
II.2018
III.2018
IV.2018
1.2019
1.2016
II.2016
Gross international reserves, US$ bn
3.0x
3.0x
Months of
imports²
1.8x
25.09
25
Sep-14
Sep-15
Sep-16
Sep-17
Sep-18
Sep-19
22
3.2x
3.4x
3.5x
18.9
20
16.4
15.6
15
13.1
10
10
5.6
5
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
16.6
22.0
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Notes
1
2
Key policy rate stated as of beginning of each month
Imports of goods and services of the immediately succeeding month are used for these calculations
September 2019
Source NBU
BA
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