Investor Presentaiton
Emerging Markets outlook
Ashmore
.
Vaccination programmes support economic and social recovery
Attractive valuations: lower equity PERS and higher real yields
- Significant acceleration in EM, in aggregate, over past six
months
28
60%
26
50%
24
22
40%
•
Emerging countries are in stronger post-pandemic position than
developed nations
20
18
30%
16
- EM has stronger growth with lower debt and ongoing reforms
20%
14
-
Inflation is under control in EM, central banks are hawkish
12
10%
10
8
0%
2010 2011
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 2021
•
Fed policy remains supportive; taper tantrum is unlikely given
stronger EM position than in 2013
% difference (rhs)
MSCI World PER
MSCI EM PER
8
6
-
Stronger fundamentals combine with attractive valuations to
support higher investor allocations to EM
Superior equity growth prospects at significant PER discount
Higher real yields in EM bonds
(2)
(4)
(6)
2
4
6
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Difference (%, rhs)
Source: MSCI, JP Morgan, Bloomberg, Ashmore
Supportive environment for continued EM performance
2013
EM real yield (%)
2014
2015
2016
2017
UST real yield (%)
2018
2019
2020
24
2021
1
2
3
4
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