Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections slide image

Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections

Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990 to 2030 4. 4.1 Transportation Overview The transportation sector has been and continues to be a significant source of GHG emissions in the state, second only to the electricity generation sector (Section 3). However, with the continued shutdown of coal-fired electric generating units across the state and the adoption of natural gas and renewable energy generation (e.g., solar, wind, and geothermal), the transportation sector is projected to exceed the electricity generation sector in terms of emissions as early as 2015 and will become the largest source of GHG emissions in the state. Historical and projected emissions for the transportation sector were calculated based on the SIT. The GHGs calculated in this sector are CO2, CH 4, and N2O. CO2 emissions from vehicles are considered to be relatively easy to estimate as they are the result of fossil fuel combustion and can be directly related to the type of fossil fuel and the amount combusted. CH 4 and N2O emissions from gasoline and diesel- powered vehicles are the result of complex combustion dynamics that, while dependent on many factors like installed vehicle technologies, air-to-fuel ratio, temperature, and other characteristics, can only be estimated to a degree of certainty. Emissions from alternative fuel vehicles are also considered. In estimating CO₂ emissions, the SIT depends on information from the EIA-SEDS to perform its calculations. The EIA-SEDS provides fuel consumption estimates for the transportation sector at the state level. It does this by calculating fuel consumption on a multi-state, regional level and then distributing the results back to the individual states in the region. 21 When projecting emissions, it takes into consideration the average fuel consumption of recent years in order to get future consumption estimates at a multi-state, regional level before redistributing the results back to the states in the region. In order to estimate CH and N2O emissions (minor contributors to total sector emissions), the types and conditions of vehicles, vehicle fuel types, and vehicle miles of travel (VMT), each in a given year, are needed. CH4 and N2O emissions are estimated by disaggregating said data into different vehicle categories and classes of age (using national averages) and applying emissions factors for various vehicle attributes. The SIT provides estimates for all of the needed data and provides opportunities for states to replace the data when and if they have more refined estimates (typically generated by state/local entities) they would prefer to use. 4.2 Historical Emissions Historical emissions from the transportation sector peaked in 2007 at 18.508 MMTCO2eq and this appears to have been due to the economic recession. In 2013, emissions were estimated to be 14.492 MMTCO2eq. Figure 4-1 illustrates total sector emissions compared to VMT and also compared to Nevada's population. Figure 4-1 clearly depicts a breakdown in the correlation that at one point existed between these datasets and total sector emissions during the recession. 21 This method can result in under/overestimating emissions as the disaggregations for the original region is based on comparisons of population and GDP amongst the state's in the group. 16
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