Petrobras' Energy Sector Outlook
CORPORATION
At this point the economy rests on quite strong
fundamentals...
Inflation has been at historically low levels ...
12-month IPCA inflation and inflation targets (%)
17
15
IPCA Inflation
13
(12.5)
11
T
5
3
Center of the target range
. enabling the central bank to lower the steering rate
Central bank steering rate
%
30
*
Since January 2009, the
central bank has cut SELIC
by 500 bp to 8.75% to
stimulate the economy*
25
20
20
15
Upper limit
10
5
Lower limit
0
1
Dec-99
Dec-00
Dec-01
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09e
Dec-10e Dec-11e
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009F 2010F 2011F
Selic interest rate (%)
Unemployment continues to decline...
Unemployment rate (%)
11.0
10.5
10.0
9.5
Seasonally adjusted
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.5
7.0
Original
6.5
6.0
Mar-06
Nov-06
Jul-07
Mar-08
Nov-08
Jul-09
Mar-10e
Dec-10e
while industrial confidence is approaching pre-crisis levels
Industrial confidence index
132
Current Status Index
122
112
Expectations Index
113.5
4122
111.0
102
92
Industrial
Confidence
Index
82
72
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Additionally, the central bank has injected R$99.8 billion of liquidity into the banking system by cutting reserve requirements.
Source: Credit Suisse research and forecasts Dec-2009; the shown forecasts are in line with other investment banks
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