OCI Ramp-Up of Methanol Capacity
New Merchant Global Methanol Supply Expected to be Below Demand Growth
million mtpa
35.0
30.0
Methanol demand growth expected to outstrip supply
2018 Global Methanol Demand by Derivative (100% = 91 mt)
Blue GDP Core - 43%
Green = Fuel/Energy - 33%
Gray MTO 24%
Methanol-to-
Olefins 23%
Formaldehyde
26%
25.0
20.0
Demand
outstrips
supply
MTBE 12%
DME 3%
Acetic Acid 8%
MMA 2%
Methylamines
2%
Biodiesel 3%
Fuel blending
13%
Others 5%
Methyl Chloride
3%
15.0
10.0
5.0
"
0.0
2019E
IIII
2020E
Firm Incremental Capacity
Incremental Demand
Incremental methanol demand in the medium term of ~3-4mn tons
from new MTO facilities
Historical Methanol Price¹)
2021E
2022E
2023E
2024E
US Methanol Contract (US$ /t)
Mid-Cycle Methanol (US$/t)
Theoretical Incremental Capacity
Utilization Rate
700
Good visibility into next 4-6 years of capacity additions given shortage of
start-up activity today
Demand growth expected at in mid-single digits (excl. captive MTO/MTP)
driven by core derivatives (GDP growth), fuel applications, and MTO/MTP
600
500
༼ སྤུར་བའི་རི་ཡི་ལམ་ཅད་ པ་༼ན་ཏུ་
400
300
200
100
Prices almost $90 below mid-cycle, but recent support from spot price
improvements, Oct contract prices rolled over 3rd month in a row
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
OCI
Source: Company information and estimates, MMSA, Argus, IMF, IHS, company reports
1 Midcycle average prices are defined as average prices for last ten years
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