OCI Ramp-Up of Methanol Capacity slide image

OCI Ramp-Up of Methanol Capacity

New Merchant Global Methanol Supply Expected to be Below Demand Growth million mtpa 35.0 30.0 Methanol demand growth expected to outstrip supply 2018 Global Methanol Demand by Derivative (100% = 91 mt) Blue GDP Core - 43% Green = Fuel/Energy - 33% Gray MTO 24% Methanol-to- Olefins 23% Formaldehyde 26% 25.0 20.0 Demand outstrips supply MTBE 12% DME 3% Acetic Acid 8% MMA 2% Methylamines 2% Biodiesel 3% Fuel blending 13% Others 5% Methyl Chloride 3% 15.0 10.0 5.0 " 0.0 2019E IIII 2020E Firm Incremental Capacity Incremental Demand Incremental methanol demand in the medium term of ~3-4mn tons from new MTO facilities Historical Methanol Price¹) 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E US Methanol Contract (US$ /t) Mid-Cycle Methanol (US$/t) Theoretical Incremental Capacity Utilization Rate 700 Good visibility into next 4-6 years of capacity additions given shortage of start-up activity today Demand growth expected at in mid-single digits (excl. captive MTO/MTP) driven by core derivatives (GDP growth), fuel applications, and MTO/MTP 600 500 ༼ སྤུར་བའི་རི་ཡི་ལམ་ཅད་ པ་༼ན་ཏུ་ 400 300 200 100 Prices almost $90 below mid-cycle, but recent support from spot price improvements, Oct contract prices rolled over 3rd month in a row 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 OCI Source: Company information and estimates, MMSA, Argus, IMF, IHS, company reports 1 Midcycle average prices are defined as average prices for last ten years 17
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