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Diesel Cuts (kb/d) Possible Price Impact -200 0.00% 50.00% 100.00% 150.00% 200.00% 0 iea -400 kb/d -600 HSFO to switch 3200 3200 3200 3200 3200 3200 3200 3200 -800 VLSFO 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 -1,000 Existing fo Is 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 600 -1,200 -1,400 blend for VLSFO 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 400 HSFO in blend 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 -1,600 Price increases Gasoil in Blend 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 320 Scrubbers 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 With Gasoil demand at 28 Compliance 90% 88% 86% 84% 82% 80% 78% 76% mb/d and Ep at -0.03 MGO needed 2000 1886 1772 1658 1544 1430 1316 1202 Gasoil availability 950 980 1010 1040 1070 1100 1130 1160 Gasoil Deficit -1050 -906 -762 -618 -474 -330 -186 -42 Diesel price increase 125% 108% 91% 74% 56% 39% 22% 5% Price increase needed to rebalance markets depends on scrubbers, compliance and diesel availability © IEA 2016

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