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Strong GDP Growth'
%,yoy
Indonesia
GDP Growth
5.05 4.96
2.97
5.06 5.01
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
-5.32
I IV T III IV I
III IV I |||||IV
III IV I
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Favourable GDP Growth Compared to Peers²
%,yoy
10.00
-2.19
-3.49
II III IV
2020
⚫ The vaccination rollout and national policy synergy are expected to drive Indonesia's
economic recovery momentum moving forward. Indonesia's economy contracted
-2.19 (yoy) in the fourth quarter 2020, However it recorded a shallower contraction
compared with -3.49% (yoy) in the third quarter of 2020. A fourth-quarter improvement
was recorded across nearly all demand-side components and economic sectors. For
the year, therefore, the economy of Indonesia shrank -2.07% in 2020. Looking forward,
domestic economic growth, is projected to gradually gain momentum in 2021.
• The economic improvements in the fourth quarter of 2020 were supported by stimulus
realization and a positive external sector contribution. Government consumption
expanded 1.76% (yoy) in the fourth quarter of 2020 due to the realization of
government stimuli, dominated by social assistance disbursements, other goods and
services expenditure as well as regional transfers and village fund disbursements.
Meanwhile, household consumption growth recorded a shallower contraction to -3.61%
(yoy) in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared with -4.05% (yoy) in the previous period in
response to greater public mobility. Investment growth also experienced a slightly
shallower contraction to -6.15% (yoy) in the reporting period compared with -6.48%
(yoy) in the previous period. On the other hand, net exports enjoyed a positive position
as export performance improved in line with economic recovery momentum in several
of Indonesia's major export destinations amidst comparatively subdued import
performance.
• Most economic sectors recorded incremental gains in the fourth quarter of 2020.
Sectors associated with healthcare as well as work-from-home and school-from-home
activities continued to improve and maintained positive growth, including Information
and Communication as well as Health Services. In addition, Agriculture and Education
also recorded positive growth, while the Manufacturing Industry and Trade, accounting
for large economic contributions, improved to experience shallower contractions.
8.80
7.40
5.00
6.10
4.00
0.00
Growth Prospect
-5.00
-10.00
Bulgaria
India
Colombia
Indonesia
Institutions
2021 GDP growth (%YoY)
2021 Budget
5.0
Philippines
-15.00
Bank Indonesia
4.3-5.3
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021*
IMF (WEO, Jan 2021)
4.8
1.
Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia (BPS),
**Including non-profit household consumption
2.
World Bank (Global Economic Prospects, Jan 2021)
4.4
Source: World Economic Outlook Database - April 2020;
* indicates estimated figure.
ADB (ADOS Dec 2020)
4.5
Green Investment Energy
6
Consensus Forecast (February 2021)
4.5View entire presentation