Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co Investment Banking
Management Projections: AMGP
AR Base Volumes Case
(in millions, unless otherwise noted)
IDR LLC, Series B Cash Flow, and Tax Observations
IDR LLC owns the 100% of the IDRs in AM and has two share classes
AMGP owns 100% of the Series A units
Management owns 100% of the Series B units
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0
Series B unitholders are entitled to receive up to 6% of the
distributions from AM in excess of $7.5MM per quarter
Remaining profits pass through AMGP via Series A shares
Series B units scheduled to vest at a value of 6% of equity value
above $2 billion in the event of a liquidation of IDR LLC
AMGP currently pays corporate taxes of 21% and 4% at the federal
and state taxes, respectively
IDR LLC Cash Flow
Distributions to AMGP □ Taxes
$69
$17 $175
$10 $48
2016A
2017A
$144
$101
$2
DG&A Series B Reserved CF
$237
$56
$166
2019E
$357
$2 $20
$85
$251
2020E
$2
(3)
(4)
(5) Illustrative yield based on regression analysis as presented on page 91.
$464
$26
$111
$326
2021E
$2
$592
$34
$141
$416
202 2E
AMGP Total Distributions
SQ AM Distribution Policy
$52
2018E
Source: Management Projections, Company Filings.
(1)
Implied AMGP and Series B valuation from 2016A through 2020E based on 2018E yield.
Implied AMGP and Series B valuation from 2021E forward based on yield vs growth regression analysis derived on slide 18.
Excludes IPO related GEA.
Series B valuation calculated as 6% of the valuation of AMGP less $2 billion.
$10
GRADI
2016A
Serie: B Take
Taxes
AM Distributions to IDR LLC
Cash Distributions to AMGP
$86
Metrazhe Yeld
CAFD to AMGP Shareholders
AMGP Valuation
2017A
Series B Valuation
$48
$144
$101
AMGP & Series B Unit Valuation (1,2,5)
2018E
$17
(7)
$236
$10
$166
NAWA
2019E
2016A 2017A 2018
(2)
$47
(7)
SQ AM Fully Distributed
$302
$251
N/A
2020E
$137
$59. $101
3.MM
$3,049
CONFIDENTIAL DRAFT
SUBJECT TO CHANGE
563
2019
$224
$166
3.3%
$182
$369
$326
2021E
$110
(2)
(85)
$251
$440
2020E 2021E 3022E
57.580
$416
2022E
(24)
$430
(2)
$326
'18 - 22
CAGR
$392
32%
147!
TUDORPICKERING
HOLT&COCHANT BANKING
(2)
$8.532 $0.344
$416
$381
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