Canadian Real Estate Secured Lending Portfolio Highlights
TD Economics Update 97
Global Outlook: War in Ukraine tops downside risks to global outlook
TD
■ In addition to the humanitarian crisis, the war in Ukraine presents a meaningful downside risk to the
global economic outlook. Uncertainty is compounded by the rapid escalation in energy prices and
increasingly tight sanctions contributing to supply disruptions.
■ The impact of the war has been primarily felt in Europe through higher commodity prices, worsened
supply chain reliability, and tighter financial conditions. Multi-billion-euro government support packages
are expected to provide some relief, but not enough to completely offset the negative shock.
■ The impact on North America has been most apparent in the consumer inflation data. Higher food and
energy prices have pushed headline inflation to record highs. Given the uncertainty about the duration
of the conflict, there is a high degree of uncertainty about the future path of commodity prices.
U.S. Outlook: Growth decelerates; inflation and labor supply are challenges
■ The U.S. economy contracted 1.4% in Q1 2022, on a large one-time drag from trade and inventories.
Inflation remained elevated at 8.3% year/year in April. Economic growth is expected to rebound but run
at a more modest 2% pace through the remainder of the year.
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Labor markets are very tight, with demand for workers remaining strong and low unemployment pushing
wage growth to the fastest pace in over 25 years. Encouragingly, labor force participation has improved
in recent months, as higher wages may be drawing more people off the sidelines.
Canada Outlook: GDP rebounds, elevated inflation prompts substantial rate hikes
■ The Canadian economy is set to grow in a healthy 3% to 6% quarterly range in the first half of 2022,
with the labour market remaining tight.
Higher oil prices have worsened inflation but resulted in increased investment in the country's energy
sector. Elevated inflation and strong economic growth have accelerated the timeline for rate hikes this
year.
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