Americas Wholesale Banking Growth and M&A Advisory
Growth in Household Credit
• Total household credit, in annual nominal terms, has slowed considerably since the 2007 peak of 13.4%
y/y. However, the Q4-2020 growth of 4.9% y/y surpassed the average of the previous four quarters
• Consumer loans excluding mortgages (i.e., cards, HELOCS, unsecured lines, auto loans, etc.)
fell by 1.1% y/y in Q4-2020. Consumer loan growth has trended downward since late-2000 highs of over
16% y/y, with recent months' negative growth induced by consumer spending pullbacks
Mortgage credit grew at 7.1% y/y in Q4-2020 vs the 2007 peak of 13.7% y/y. Underlying demand.
coupled with lower five-year rates drove a rebound in the pace of growth
20
20
Household Credit Growth
[%, 3-month moving average
15
yly%
change
10
10
m/m%
5
change,
SA
T
01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
Sources: Scotiabank Economics,
Statistics Canada.
15
10
2205
0
Consumer Loan Growth
-5
-10
%, 3-month moving average
y/y %
change
Residential Mortgage Growth
20
%, 3-month moving average
15
yly%
change
10
m/m%
change, SA
5
m/m%
change,
SA
-15
0
17 19 21
01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21
Sources: Scotiabank Economics,
Statistics Canada.
01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21
Sources: Scotiabank Economics,
Statistics Canada.
66
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