Bank of Ireland H1 2020 Credit Presentation
Forward Looking Information - macro-economic
scenarios
Bank of Ireland H1 2020 Credit Presentation
30 June 2020
Downside -30% scenario probability weighting
GDP growth¹
GNP growth¹
Unemployment rate²
2020
Republic of Ireland
2021
2022-2024
2020
United Kingdom
2021
2022-2024
(12.0%)
5.7%
2.5%
(13.0%)
7.9%
1.6%
(14.0%)
6.9%
2.1%
n/a
n/a
n/a
14.8%
10.9%
7.5%
9.5%
7.9%
6.3%
Residential property price growth³
(10.0%)
(5.0%)
(0.7%)
(10.0%)
(5.0%)
(0.7%)
Commercial property price growth³
(14.0%)
(9.0%)
(0.3%)
(15.0%)
(9.0%)
(0.3%)
Central -50% scenario probability weighting
GDP growth¹
(8.3%)
6.1%
2.7%
(9.3%)
8.8%
1.8%
GNP growth¹
(11.6%)
7.3%
2.3%
n/a
n/a
n/a
Unemployment rate²
13.0%
8.2%
4.8%
7.3%
6.0%
4.5%
Residential property price growth³
(10.0%)
(1.0%)
1.0%
(10.0%)
(2.0%)
1.0%
Commercial property price growth³
(14.0%)
(2.0%)
0.7%
(15.0%)
(3.0%)
1.0%
Upside - 20% scenario probability weighting
GDP growth¹
(5.0%)
8.5%
2.9%
(6.0%)
10.7%
2.2%
GNP growth¹
(7.0%)
9.7%
2.5%
n/a
n/a
n/a
Unemployment rate²
9.8%
6.2%
4.5%
6.3%
4.2%
4.0%
Residential property price growth³
(7.0%)
1.0%
1.7%
(7.0%)
(1.0%)
2.0%
Commercial property price growth³
(10.5%)
0.0%
1.8%
(11.5%)
(0.5%)
1.8%
1 Annual growth rate
2 Average yearly rate
3 Year-end figures
Bank of Ireland
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