Capital Adequacy and Divisional Performance
UAE Economic Update
Highlights
UAE was impacted by external shocks including weaker oil prices, a
credit squeeze, and declining world trade
■ Now these channels are improving, with oil prices firmer, global credit
more available and world trade improving.
Locally, monetary policy also responded to the crisis, with rates being
cut and liquidity provided
■ UAE's accumulated surpluses over recent years enable it to engage in
powerful counter-cyclical fiscal policies
■ Correction provides potential to put growth back on a more sustainable
long-term path
140
120
100
80
80
40
20
0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
Promising signs for oil (USD)
1997
1998
1999
2000
Source: Bloomberg
Emirates NBD
Brent oil $ per
barrel
2001
2002
Rolling 180-day moving average
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Real GDP Growth Forecasts (1)
2008
2009
2010
2011
UAE
7.4%
0.0%
2.5%
4.5%
UK
0.7%
(4.5%)
0.5%
2.0%
Eurozone
0.4%
(4.0%)
1.0%
1.5%
Germany
1.0%
(4.8%)
1.0%
2.0%
US
1.1%
(2.5%)
3.0%
3.0%
China
9.0%
8.5%
10.0%
9.5%
Japan
(0.7%)
(6.5%)
2.0%
1.5%
Singapore
1.3%
(2.0%)
4.1%
5.0%
Hong Kong
2.4%
(2.5%)
4.0%
5.0%
20
20
15
10
UAE Real GDP - YoY (%)(1)
5
0
-5
2006
2007
2008
2009
■Government spending
Private consumption
Export G&S
■Fixed Investment
1) EIU, Emirates NBD forecasts
2010
■Real GDP growth
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