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80 CA: Consumer and Business Activity 110 Index, 2019Q4 = 100 105 Jan 13, 2020 forecast 100 95 90 90 85 GDP Getting Back on Track Business Confidence - CFIB Business Barometer 80 index, >50 stronger Apr. 12, 2022 forecast 50 50 19Q4 LOOZ 20Q2 Source: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics Canada. 20Q3 2004 21Q1 Key Economic Indicators S21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 22Q1 22Q2 22Q3 22Q4 23Q1 23Q2 23Q3 23Q4 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20- Jun-20 Jul-20- Aug-20 - Sep-20- Oct-20- Nov-20. ៩ ៦ 8 8 ៩ ៩ ៩ ៩ ៩ 60 100 140 120 160 index, Feb 2020 levels 100 180 Dec-20- Jan-21. Feb-21- Mar-21- Apr-21- May-21- Auto Sales Mfg Shipments Exports Housing Starts Retail Sales Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Bloomberg. Jun-21- Jul-21- Aug-21- Sep-21- Oct-21- Nov-21- Dec-21- Jan-22 Feb-22- Mar-22 Employment Manufacturing PMI Apr-22 80 85 90 100 40 30 70 70 60 60 20 11 12 13 14 3-month moving Headline index 6-month moving average average T T T 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, CFIB. Labour Market Recovery Canada's Labour Force Participation Rate Canada Fully Recovers Lost Jobs 105 Feb. 2020=100 66 % 65 95 Feb-20 Apr-20- Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20- Dec-20- Feb-21- Apr-21- Jun-21- Aug-21- Oct-21- Dec-21- Feb-22 Apr-22 J Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics Canada. 64 63 32 62 61 60 59 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20 Feb-21] Apr-21] Jun-21] Aug-21] Oct-21] Dec-21] Feb-22] Apr-22] 65

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