Economic and Investment Outlook
High frequency data somewhat mixed
Recent data mostly positive but not as strong as early 2022
Retail sales (ex motor)
-1.2
2/22 3/22 4/22 5/22 6/22 7/22 8/22 9/22 10/22 11/22 12/22 1/23 2/23 3/23 4/23 5/23 6/23
0.3 0.6 0.0 -0.2 -1.5 0.2 -0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 -0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 n/a
Unemployment rate
4.7
5.0
4.6
4.2
4.2 4.2
4.3 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3
4.2 4.0
3.9 3.8
3.8
Payroll employees
1.4
1.4
1.2
0.7
0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.1
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.2
n/a
Headline HICP
0.3
0.9
1.3
1.4
1.1
0.9
0.6
0.2
0.6
0.6
0.5
-0.4
0.1
0.5
0.9 0.5
0.5
Core HICP
0.3
0.3
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.1 0.2
-0.1
0.4
0.6 1.1 0.8 0.6
House prices
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.0
0.9
0.6 0.3 0.2
0.0 -0.2
Consumer confidence
77.0 67.0
57.7
55.5
57.7
53.7
53.4
42.1 46.1 45.3 48.7
Composite PMI
59.1
61.0 59.6 57.5 52.8
52.9
51.0
52.2
Income Tax
2.1
2.1
2.7 2.4
2.4
2.5
2.4
2.2
2.5
4.4
52.1 48.8 50.5
2.5
2.2 2.3 3.1 2.6
-0.5 -0.4 -0.3 n/a
55.2 55.6 53.9 59.2 62.4 63.7
52.0 54.5 52.8 53.5 51.9 51.4
2.8
2.5
Source: CSO, Eurostat, ILCU, SPDJI, Irish Department of Finance
Gníomhaireacht Bainistíochta an Chisteáin Náisiúnta
National Treasury Management Agency
Note: Retail sales, payroll employees, HICP and house prices are calculated as m-o-m % 3mma. Income tax is the
monthly tax revenue; November includes income tax for those who are self-employed.
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