Investor Presentaiton
LEAD MARKET
Growth in the ICE (a) fleet will support
demand in the short to medium term
Renewable energy storage will
remain a key component of demand
EV penetration rates and resultant
scrap supply will ultimately
determine the market balance
Total lead demand by end-user sectors
15%
2020
15%
2040
•
37%
+29%
46%
18%
19%
12.4Mt
15.9Mt
18%
11%
Source: South32 analysis.
Notes:
a.
b.
8%
13%
Transport (replacement)
Traction (b)
Other
Transport (original equipment)
Stationary (energy storage)
ICE refers to internal combustion engine.
Traction batteries refers to automotive batteries used to power smaller vehicles, including e-bike, trikes and forklifts.
Demand
III
SOUTH32
While electric vehicle penetration rates are
forecast to rise, concurrent growth in the internal
combustion engine fleet supports demand for
lead batteries in the short to medium term
The safety-related and low-cost characteristics of
lead-acid batteries makes them an attractive
choice for renewables energy storage
Supply
Mine supply expected to fall by 3.8% pa
(~100kt pa) to 2040
In our base case, rising scrap production is
insufficient to balance the projected market
shortfall, requiring new mine supply and
inducement pricing
In a 1.5C (climate change) scenario, scrap supply
would be significantly higher with the accelerated
shift away from ICE vehicles, potentially limiting
the need for additional primary supply
SLIDE 27View entire presentation