Investor Presentaiton
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UAE Economic Update
Highlights
Real GDP Growth Forecasts
■
Estimated GDP growth to remain at 2.5% in 2012
2008
2009
2010
2011F
2012F
2013F
☐
Non-oil sector also likely to face headwinds from weaker global growth, UAE
high uncertainty and risk aversion
3.3%
(1.6%)
1.4%
4.6%
2.5%
3.8%
UK
■ The UAE's PMI has been broadly stable in Q1 with a reading of 52.3 in
March, indicating that the private sector activity is expanding modestly but has
not accelerated so far this year
(1.1%)
(4.9%)
1.4%
1.0%
0.5%
1.6%
Eurozone
0.4%
(4.1%)
1.7%
1.5%
(0.5%)
1.0%
Germany
1.1%
(5.1%)
3.7%
3.0%
0.5%
1.5%
☐
UAE oil output rose by 3.5% in Q1 2012. Oil prices rose to an average USD
123 per barrel mainly on geological tensions and risks.
US
(0.3%)
(3.5%)
3.0%
1.5%
1.5%
2.5%
China
9.6%
9.2%
10.3%
9.0%
8.0%
8.4%
■ Average UAE inflation has accelerated a little in the first two months of
2012. Expect inflation to rise to an average 1.3% this year from 0.9% in 2011.
Japan
(1.1%)
(6.3%)
4.0%
0.0%
2.0%
1.4%
Singapore
1.9%
(0.8%)
14.9%
5.0%
n/a
n/a
Hong Kong
2.3%
(2.6%)
7.0%
5.0%
3.0%
4.4%
Source: Global Insight, Emirates NBD forecasts, Bloomberg
2.7
2.6
2.5
Oil production trends
2.4
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.0
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
UAE (lhs)
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research
Emirates NBD
UAE Quota (Ihs)
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
140
60
120
100
80
221 220
USD per barrel
55
50
60
45
10
40
UAE PMI - private sector expansion trends
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
OPEC oil price (rhs)
Source: HSBC, Markit
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