Energy Security Scenarios
THE ENERGY SECURITY SCENARIOS
OIL AND GAS INVESTMENT DURING THE TRANSITION TO NET-ZERO
Oil production by origin
Share of 2022 Resource Base* produced by 2050
Mboe/day
120
Iran
I New discoveries - additional
Iraq
100
8
80
New fields - additional
Existing - additional
I New discoveries
Kazakhstan
Libya
Nigeria
60
60
I New fields
Russia
40
40
20
20
History + existing
Sky 2050
Archipelagos
Turkmenistan
Venezuela
O
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
0%
Sky 2050
Archipelagos
10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Not produced
70%
80%
90%
100%
■ Sky 2050 has very rapid transport electrification, but would still need continued investment in oil and gas because of
cautious assumptions on the use of food based biofuels, on people reducing their energy use voluntarily and it doubts
whether some major resource holders can produce their oil and gas reserves.
■ Archipelagos would need a considerable increase of investment in oil and gas.
Shell plc | March 22, 2023
* Estimated resource base is Rystad's assessment of economically viable discovered volumes. Percentages capped at 100% for consistency, but where the model
produces a significant propotion of yet-to-find volumes, the total produced volume in the model will exceed the resource base estimate.
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