KASIKORNBANK Economic and Subsidiaries Performance Overview slide image

KASIKORNBANK Economic and Subsidiaries Performance Overview

20 -30 2006 51 2007 2009 2010 2011 50 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1,000 Units 250 200 196 146 161 178 151 159 182 174 197 206 197 195 175 163 166 150 100 2014 Demand Side: Transferred Properties in BMR* 2016 Supply Side: New Housing Completions and New Projects Launched in BMR* 1,000 Units ■New Housing Completions New Projects Launched 170 131133 120 20 117 124 111 125 14 114 119 102 132 108 133 127 81 - 118 107 92 115 112 66 101 70 60.5 2020 2021 2022 5M2022 35 40.5 33.7 K KASIKORNTHAI ธนาคารกสิกรไทย 开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK Property Market: New project launching decreased in the first 5 months of 2023, compared to the high base in the last year 5M2023 2017 2018 2019 2020 Household Borrowing to GDP Old Definition New Definition % of NGDP 100 882 80 60 K KASIKORNTHAI Household Borrowing % of Loans 25 94.2 94.7 91.4 90.6 84.4 84.0 82.7 84.1 20 19.39 76.1 9.4 9.7 59.3 8.8 7.5 7.6 8.3 13.4 13.3 12.0 12.7 12.3 12.2 40 28.9 10.6 22.3 23.1 23.1 22.3 22.3 10.5 10.5 12.8 12.7 25.3 25.3 24.4 24.2 15 10 5 24.4 19.6 18.9 20 7.7 11.2 15.1 24.5 29.5 33.5 33.7 33.5 34.3 38.4 38.7 36.4 35.9 0 11.9 13.2 13.9 0 Sources: National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), BOT, Real Estate Information Center (REIC), Agency for Real Estate Affairs (AREA), and KResearch Note: Including Condominium, Single House, and Townhouse; BMR = Bangkok and Metropolitan Area บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ 67.5 66.2 2021 2022 5M2022 5M2023 ■Mortgage loans to GDP are higher than pre-crisis level, due to factors such as changes in consumer behavior, intense competition among banks, and a more accessible credit market ■ Outstanding loans granted to property developers to GDP was 4.1% in 2022, still lower than pre-crisis level ■Supply Side: Compared to the high base in the previous year, the number of new housing projects launched in 5M23 fell by 16.8% YoY. ■Demand Side: Due to a decline in demand, property sales fell by 1.9% during the 5M23 period. Later in 2023, cautious home purchases might be made as a result of the unstable economy, high household debt levels, and rising mortgage loan rates. ■Mortgage NPLs among Thai commercial banks was at 3.16% in 1Q23, compared to 3.01 in 2022, 3.52%. Outstanding Mortgage Loans to Individuals and Property Developers to GDP % of GDP 30 26.7 25 20 16.8 15 10.4 10 4.1 5 0 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 -Loans to Property Developers 2017 2020 1H23 Housing Loans % NPL for Consumption Loans of Thai Commercial Banks ธนาคารกสิกรไทย 开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK 159 Commercial Banks Non-Bank Fls 1994 1996 1997 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 1Q23 Saving Cooperatives --Total SFIs Others Old Definition: Data from 1991 - 1997: lending from commercial banks and SFIs to individual persons for consumption only New Definition: Data from 2010 onwards: takes into account individual persons' outstanding loans from all types of financial institutions, including savings Co-ops and non-banks Debt Service Ratio of Thai households Cross-Country Comparison of Household Debt (as of 2022) % of GDP % 50 117.8 108.2 40 86.9 81.2 27.9 28.1 27.2 28.4 29.1 27.0 66.4 61.9 30 23.0 56.1 20 Australia South Korea Thailand Malaysia US China Source: CEIC and KResearch Singapore 10 0 IIII 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 Source: NSO and KResearch 2.68 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 1Q23 Household debt to GDP stayed at 90.6% in 1Q23, and is expected to remain high in 2023 ■Household borrowing to GDP is higher than pre-crisis level, due to factors such as changes in consumer behavior, intense competition among banks, and a more accessible credit market ■Thailand's household debt to GDP is comparable to other countries*; debt service ratio of Thai households is still well below 40%, indicating the household debt situation is unlikely to trigger any problems in the foreseeable future ■NPL ratio for consumption loans of commercial banks rose to 2.68% in 1Q23 from 2.62% in 4Q22. Source: BOT, Bank for International Settlements (BIS), National Statistical Office (NSO), CEIC and KResearch บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ 160
View entire presentation