Nordea Kredit Performance Update
IFRS 9 model update
Macroeconomic assumptions for scenarios
Baseline annual GDP growth, %
54
3
2
1
0
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
-1
-2
-3
⚫Denmark
Norway
Finland
Sweden
-4
Baseline unemployment rate, %
10
60
8 7
6
5
4
st
2
1
3270
2020
2021
2022
21
.
•
.
•
·
Economic forecasts from Nordic central banks and
the ECB are used as basis for baseline scenarios
Scenarios are less positive in Q2
Base scenario, 50% weight
The war in Ukraine is weighing on the outlook through
higher energy and food prices, shocks to business and
consumer confidence and significantly higher interest
rates
- The starting point is quite robust as the Nordic economies
have fully recovered after the COVID-19 pandemic
Adverse scenario, 40% weight
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine could potentially
cause energy prices to move even higher, providing a
further negative impulse to private consumption and
investments
Upside scenario, 10% weight
Energy prices decrease and uncertainty is reversed
prompting a stronger recovery
Nordea
Denmark
Norway
2023
Finland
Sweden
2024View entire presentation