Investor Presentaiton
Cement
Raw Material | Coal
PACRA
•
Imported coal constitutes ~40% to the total cost of production of the
cement sector.
Coal Import
20,000
2,000
Coal imports have witnessed an increasing trend over the period due
to increased production of cement and coal fired power plants.
15,000
1,500
10,000
Coal imports in FY20 were recorded at USD~1,313mln with YoY
decrease of ~14% (FY19: USD~1,538mln), whereas the quantity
imported increased by ~5% during the same period. The decrease in
import bill despite higher quantities imported in FY20 is majorly
attributed to the freefall in coal prices amid Covid-19 outbreak (~23%).
Average coal price during FY20 was recorded at USD~67/MT down
~23% YoY (FY19: USD~88/MT). Prices registered a slight downward
trend in 1HFY21 averaging around USD~65/MT. Average crude oil price
during 1HFY21 was recorded at USD~43/bbl (1HFY20: USD~60/bbl).
Crude oil prices are expected to average above USD~55/bbl during
2HFY21.
5,000
100
80
Considering high correlation between crude oil and coal prices, average
coal prices are also expected to increase in 2HFY21 in line with the
uptick in oil price.
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
Coal Import (000 MT)
Coal Import (US$ mln)
Average Coal and Crude Oil Prices
60
40
20
0
FY16
FY17
FY18
FY19
FY20
1 HFY21
Coal Pirce (US$/Ton)
Crude Oil (US$/Barrel)
Source: EIA, PBS, Index Mundi
6
1,000
500View entire presentation