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Banking credit forecast using lagged GDP Banking credit $ billons 5,200 4,700 4,200 3,700 3,200 2,700 2,200 1,700 1,200 700 2003 ...... Forecast Fitted Observed 2006 2009 2012 2015 Note: *Observed GDP growth in 2022. ** For 2023, we assume our 3.3% forecast in 2023 Source: Banorte with INEGI and Banxico data 99 2018 2021 2024 Backtest and forecast* % y/y in real terms Year Observed Original model 2020 1.1 2.1 2021 -8.6 -7.8 2022 2.1 1.1 2023* 5.4 (up to August) 5.4 2024** 6.1 Banking Credit Forecast Model Different adjustment variables were tested (e.g. GDP, interest rate TIIE, industrial activity, remittances, etc.) and it was found that the best adjustment is seen with the one-year-lag for GDP. This implies that a relatively robust forecast can be made for banking credit one year ahead, while internal estimates can be used for two years. Div DB Rev Dep TI LD Loan BAP Guid ESG GRUPO FINANCIERO Eco NIM NI ROE ICAP Mkt App BANORTE Hist C/I

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