International Banking: Pacific Alliance Financial Performance
Macroeconomic Scenarios
Select Macroeconomic Variables used to estimate Expected Credit Losses
Next 12 months
Canada
Base Case Scenario
As at
As at
Alternative Scenario -
Alternative Scenario -
Optimistic
Pessimistic
Alternative Scenario -
Pessimistic Front Loaded
As at
As at
As at
As at
As at
As at
January 31, 2021 October 31, 2020 January 31, 2021 October 31, 2020 January 31, 2021 October 31, 2020 January 31, 2021 October 31, 2020
Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change
4.6
3.1
6.5
Unemployment rate, average %
7.9
7.3
7.4
ཐབ
4.7
-0.6
-2.0
-6.8
-10.8
6.7
10.1
9.9
13.0
14.1
US
Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change
4.3
2.5
5.7
3.6
0.9
-0.5
-2.9
-7.4
Unemployment rate, average %
6.2
6.3
5.8
6.1
7.4
8.1
8.7
10.5
Global
WTI oil price, average USD/bbl
48
48
54
52
41
42
38
37
Next 12 months
Canada
Quarterly breakdown of the projections for the above macroeconomic variables:
Base Case Scenario
Calendar Quarters
Calendar Quarters
Q1
2021
Q2
Q3
Q4
Average
January 31
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2021
2021
2021
2021
2020
2021
2021
2021
Average
October 31
2020
Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change
-2.2
11.8
4.2
4.6
4.6
-3.9
-0.4
12.9
3.7
3.1
Unemployment rate, average %
8.4
8.2
7.7
7.3
7.9
8.1
7.1
6.9
6.9
7.3
US
Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change
Unemployment rate, average %
-1.2
10.1
3.8
4.3
4.3
-3.7
6.1
19
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.2
37
-1.1
9.9
7.7
6.6
5.8
449
4.8
2.5
5.4
6.3
Global
WTI oil price, average USD/bbl
44
47
47
49
62
999
52
48
45
45
48
50
51
48
24
Source: Scotiabank Economics, forecasts as of December 21, 2020View entire presentation