OCI Global Energy Transition Leadership
OCI
Global
Limited New Nitrogen Capacity, offset by Higher Demand
Slowdown of new urea capacity additions, with good visibility given ~5-year
project lead time
Global urea net capacity changes and demand growth, excl.-China, Mt
Merchant ammonia market expected to be underpinned by cost curve economics &
impact of CBAM post-2026
Global ammonia capacity changes and demand growth, excl.-China excl.-urea, Mt
22.8
Supply
Supply deficit of 6.1 Mt,
significant reversal from 5.9 Mt
oversupply in the last down cycle
2015-2019
Limited new additions 2024 - 2026:
two thirds of the 6.6 Mt new supply
expected to come onstream in 2027
16.9
Demand
2015-2019
Demand
12.4
8.2
6.6
2020-2023
12.7
2024-2027
Others
USA
Iran
Nigeria
India
Russia
1
-2
-3
-4
5432-0 1 2 3 4 5
-1
Capacity Y-on-Y change
Demand growth
3 permanent ammonia plant closures in Europe:
United Kingdom (2) & Germany. More
rationalization expected given cost-curve economics
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Only accounts for new blue/green
projects that have reached FID and
doesn't account for demand upside
from new applications
2024 2025 2026 2027
Most new Indian capacity was absorbed by the end of H1 2023,
with the remaining only one Indian project expected to come online in 2026-27
Increased focus on the environment & interest in energy transition, limiting "grey" capacity additions in the US, EU, China and elsewhere
Source: CRU, Industry Consultants, OCI analysis
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