NICHE JUNGLE Indonesia Outlook
A story of growth
•
•
Good past growth
2.000
Indonesian GDP trend from 1986 to 2026E
1750
•
•
Potential for credit growth
.
Potential to increase FDI
trade surplus (already in)
A chronic trade deficit turning into a
1500
1 250
1.000
500
250
101.22
138.26 190.91
274.72
15.32 174.51
1986
255.43
755.
558.58
396.29
892.59 891.05
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
.
•
Tourism expansion
Growth in high value industries
Source: Statista Research
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022"
•
Supply chain diversification from China
A story of catch-up: Indonesia shares
with India economic model based on
internal consumption, a good
demography. India small caps rerated
from during 2009-2023
Mar-02:
Dec-02
Sep-03
Jun-04
Mar-053
Dec-053
Sep-06
Commodity price rally improves Indonesia's terms of trade
FDI (US$ billion) Not incl. Oil & Finance
Energy & constr.
--Primary
2024
2026*
0.9
1561.9
1458-14
0.8
1 360 26
1256.28
0.7
1 120.04
1015.49
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
FDI (as % of GDP) Not incl. Oil & Finance
Indonesia
ASEAN
Thailand
Malaysia
ASEAN (ex SG)
% yoy
20.0
15.0
10.0
Commodity index (Nickel + Coal + CPO), end-2004 100-RHS
Current account, % of GDP (RHS)
-Balance of payment, % of GDP (RHS)
Source: CIMB research
Credit Growth Profile
Jun-16
Mar-17
Dec-17
Sep-18
5%
180
160
0%
140
-5%
120
100
-10%
80
60
40
20
0
2004
2005
2006
5.0
0.0
-5.0
10.0
Jan-15
Jul-15
Jan-16
Jul-16
Jan-17
Jul-17
Sources: Financial Services Authority, Bank Indonesia
Jan-18
Jul-18
Jan-19
Jul-19
Total Growth
Working Capital Loans
Investment Loans
Consumption Loans
Jan-20
Jul-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
2007
2008
2009
Indonesia
5.19%
7.68
7.0%
Vietnam
6.03
11.7%
5.58
Malaysia
6.65
Thailand
20.0%
Mar-22
Philippines
22.5%
Tourism as a % of GDP 2019
Source: OECD Investment Policy Reviews: Indonesia 2020
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Manufacturing
Services
Potential to
increase value
added
manufacturing
Source: World Travel and Tourism Council
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