SAGA Investor Update
We have considered several adverse stress test scenarios
for the development of the COVID-19 crisis
Central scenario assumptions
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Cruise suspended from mid-March to mid-September
Delay for Spirit of Adventure of 3 months until November
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Impacts 26 departures
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Tour Ops suspended from 16 March until the end of August
Significant adverse impact on passenger volumes for the rest of the year across Cruise (eg 54%
load factor in December 2020) and Tour Ops (eg 40% reduction in pax September-January)
Approximately 65% reduction in FY Tour Ops and Cruise revenues (vs plan)
Expect 'drop through rate' from reduced travel revenues to full year Underlying PBT of 15-20% for
Tour Ops and 55%-60% for Cruise (vs plan levels, net of divisional mitigation actions)
Insurance results expected to remain resilient, but a level of prudent stress test included
Very prudent approach to travel rebooking, makes no allowance for cruise debt 'holiday'
or other payment deferrals, and before other cost mitigation actions
SAGA
Investor update 2 April 2020
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