Investor Presentaiton
Macroeconomic Scenarios
Select Macroeconomic Variables used to estimate Expected Credit Losses
Next 12 months
Canada
Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change
Base Case Scenario
As at
As at
Alternative Scenario -
Optimistic
As at
As at
Alternative Scenario -
Pessimistic
As at
As at
Alternative Scenario -
Pessimistic Front Loaded
As at
As at
October 31, 2022 October 30, 2021 October 31, 2022 October 30, 2021 October 31, 2022 October 30, 2021 October 31, 2022 October 30, 2021
1.2
3.4
2.4
5.3
(4.8)
(1.3)
(5.9)
(7.4)
Consumer price index, Y/Y % change
4.9
3.0
5.2
3.4
9.3
2.0
12.5
1.6
Bank of Canada overnight rate target, average %
3.8
0.3
4.2
0.9
5.1
0.3
5.1
0.3
Unemployment rate, average %
5.7
6.3
5.1
5.6
9.7
8.8
10.2
11.7
US
Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change
0.6
5.7
1.3
7.3
(5.1)
2.4
(6.5)
(1.4)
Consumer price index, Y/Y % change
5.4
4.0
5.8
4.5
10.0
3.3
13.2
2.6
Target federal funds rate, upper limit, average %
3.5
0.3
4.7
0.8
4.8
0.3
4.8
0.3
4.3
3.8
Global
Unemployment rate, average %
WTI oil price, average USD/bbl
89
69
95
75
116
61
125
57
Quarterly breakdown of the projections for the above macroeconomic variables:
Base Case Scenario
4.2
3.4
7.9
5.6
8.3
6.8
Calendar Quarters
Average
Calendar Quarters
Next 12 months
Canada
Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change
Consumer price index, Y/Y % change
Q4
2022
Q1
Q2
Q3
October 31
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2023
2023
2023
2022
2021
2022
2022
2022
Average
October 31
2021
1.9
6.9
Bank of Canada overnight rate target, average %
3.8
28
1.2
0.6
1.0
1.2
3.1
2.6
3.9
4.1
3.4
5.1
4.0
3.6
4.9
3.7
3.0
2.8
2.6
3.0
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.3
Unemployment rate, average %
5.4
5.6
5.8
5.9
5.7
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.7
6.3
4033
US
Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change
0.1
0.6
1.0
0.8
0.6
6.7
6.3
5.5
4.2
5.7
Consumer price index, Y/Y % change
7.2
5.8
4.6
4.0
5.4
4.8
4.4
3.8
3.0
4.0
Target federal funds rate, upper limit, average %
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
Unemployment rate, average %
3.8
4.1
4.4
4.8
4.3
4.6
4.0
3.5
3.1
3.8
Global
WTI oil price, average USD/bbl
90
89
89
888
89
70
10
Source: Scotiabank Economics, forecasts as of September 12, 2022
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69
69
69
50
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