Investor Presentation Second Quarter 2018
NAFTA REVIEW AND CONSIDERATIONS
Scotiabank is operating in the right markets across the Pacific Alliance and committed to long-
term growth
.
Impact on Pacific Alliance
○ No material impact expected on Peru, Chile, or Colombia
o Mexico is highly exposed to disruptions in NAFTA, but we do not expect any major negative changes in the trading
relationship with the US
Scotiabank operations are diversified and Mexico accounts for roughly 5%+ of the Bank's overall results
Mexico's loan book is equally split between Retail/Commercial
Only 20% of the Commercial exposure is directly linked to the US/NAFTA
• Viewpoint
○ NAFTA came into effect in 1994. Much has changed since then in the global economy. Efforts to modernize elements of
NAFTA in the areas of e-commerce, intellectual property, and professional labour mobility are welcome
o Mexico has a strong manufacturing industry with 40 bilateral trade agreements with other countries
。 NAFTA has helped Mexico to advance on a number of meaningful structural reforms in sectors that include energy,
telecommunications, and transportation, amongst others, that will support growth
○ Mexico invests heavily in education and produces more engineers each year than Germany
Scotiabank Economics Outlook
。 Scotiabank's baseline macroeconomic scenario anticipates that agreement and ratification of a new version of the pact
is likely to be pushed into 2019
○ The ongoing NAFTA uncertainty could reduce Canadian and Mexican GDP growth by 0.1-0.2 percentage points
in 2018, resulting in a baseline growth forecast of 2.2% and 2.3%, respectively. US real GDP growth should not be
materially dampened this year
Growth risks are to the upside for Mexico and Canada if the NAFTA talks conclude on positive terms earlier than
end-2018
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