Financial Performance and Remediation Update
ECL ASSESSMENT
ECL SCENARIOS & WEIGHTINGS
Total Provisions for ECL1,2
74
•
2H21
100% Base
$m
(probability
case
100%
Downside
weighted)
Total Group
5,171
Change vs Mar 21
(574)
4,291
(613)
6,984
(346)
Macro economic scenario weightings
KEY CONSIDERATIONS
•
Reduction in ECL vs Mar 21 includes $299m CP
derecognised with aviation sale³ and $120m SP reduction
due to work-outs and low levels of new impairments
Modest underlying CP release given improved asset quality
$157m reduction in target sector FLAs (ex. aviation sale)
Modest EA increase with increased uncertainty in economic
outlook
Australian Portfolio (%)
Upside
Base case
Downside
31 Mar 21
5
65
30
30 Sep 21
5
62.5
32.5
Limited change in exposures (total and mix)
TOTAL PROVISIONS FOR EXPECTED CREDIT LOSSES¹
ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
($m)
6,011
5,745
Economic assumptions considered in deriving Base Case ECL scenario at Sep 21
5,171
4,835
514
314
%
2022
2023
2024
153
410
GDP change (Year ended
September)
5.9
2.2
2.5
4,252
4,126
3,770
3,275
Unemployment (as at 30
September)
4.5
4.0
3.8
1,150
Mar 20
1,245
Sep 20
1,305
1,248
Mar 21
Sep 21
House price change
5.5
3.0
(Year ended September)
20
2.0
■Housing Business
Other
(1) ECL excludes provisions on fair value loans and derivatives
(2) Scenarios, prepared for purposes of informing forward looking provisions, rely on NAB Economics modelling and management judgement
(3) Of which $248m relates to target sector FLAS
National
Australia
BankView entire presentation