Climate and Catastrophe Risk Assessment - Asia
Mean Sea-level Pressure (hPa)
Speed (knots)
Met Office
cars
Data Validation
AKASH
Federal Ministry
for the Environment, Nature Conservation
and Nuclear Safety
part of the Oasis Platform for Climate and Catastrophe Risk Assessment -
Asia, a project funded by the International Climate Initiative (IKI)
150
x9 ensemble members
06
IBTRACS US
DO
Max Gust Speeds
125
IBTRACS ND
100
75
50
25
1000
990
ERA5
-
Ensemble 1
980
970
960
... 2
... 3
Max Wind Speeds
Minimum Sea-level
Pressures
950
05-12
05-13
05-13
05-14
05-14
12Z
OOZ
12Z
OOZ
12Z
05-15
OOZ
05-15
12Z
05-16
0OZ
We compare our 4.4km data to ERA5 and IBTRACS New
Delhi (ND) and US centre forecasts (including IBTRACS
uncertainty information). Validation is very variable
between storms. Agreement between ERA5 and IBTRACS is
often poor.
Key Point (f) ▼
Peak gust speeds are typically 50 - 150 knots (25 - 80 m/s)
faster than ERA5 & minimum MSLP is typically 20 - 50 hPa
deeper than ERA5 in the 4.4km model.
In general, most peak wind/gusts and minimum MSLP lags
ERA5 & IBTRACS by 4-12 hours. The speed of travel of
tropical cyclones over the ocean appears slower in the
4.4km model. Longer ocean transition time appears to
result in more delayed landfall.
Key Point (g) ▼
Unfortunately there are no reliable source of observational
data in this region to verify these results against.
Validation of storm tracks is in progress.
www.metoffice.gov.uk
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