Investor Presentaiton
Dubai Economic Update
Highlights
Dubai's real GDP growth was 4% in 2012; the main driver of growth
was manufacturing, which expanded 13% y-o-y, and contributed 2% to
the headline growth figure
Dubai's 2013 GDP growth is forecasted at 4%; continued expansion
in the manufacturing, trade and hospitality sectors as well as a
continued recovery in real estate and business services should support
broader business activity; construction sector expected to contribute
positively to GDP growth for the first time since 2008, as recently
announced projects get underway
The estimate for H1 2013 of 4.9% growth is well above our forecast of
4% for the whole of 2013
Non-oil trade with other GCC countries, particularly Saudi Arabia
and Qatar, are likely to continue to offset any weakness in trade with
Europe and the US
Dubai: Real GDP growth
Y-o-y growth %
Emirates NBD
6.0%
5.0%
4.9%
4.3%
4.0%
4.0% 3.2%
3.2%
2.7%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
2008
-2.4%
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013f 2014f
-
Source: Emirates NBD Research, Dubai Statistics Centre
Dubai GDP – Composition by Sector, and Sector Growth
Dubai GDP by Sector (%) - H1
15.0
2013
Fin
Servcs.
12%
Hotels
10.0
5%
5.0
Trade
29%
Trans.
0.0
&
2012e
2013f
comm.
14%
Manuf.
16%
RE
21%
Other
3%
-5.0
■ Other ■Hotels ■Manuf. ■Trade
RE
Fin Servcs.
■Trans. & comm.
Source: Dubai Statistics Centre, Haver Analytics
6View entire presentation