GTBank Business and Financial Performance
Macro-economic overview
Economic overview
■ Oil price induced economic slowdown
After a year of over 6% GDP growth, Nigeria's economic growth rate dropped below
6% in December 2014 (December 2014 - 5.94%; December 2013: 6.77)
GDP Growth and Inflation
Real GDP Growth
Inflation (year on year)
14.0%
12.9%
12.0%
11.8%
12.0%
11.3%
The slowdown in economic growth is expected to continue in 2015 as both oil and non-
oil sectors show strain amidst low oil prices, a weaker Naira and reduced access to
credit. Non-oil sector grew 6.44% in Q4 2014 vs 8.78% in Q4 2013
10.0%
8.6%
8.0%
6.0%
5.57%
3.64%
■Fx reserves
4.0%
4.11%
4.45%
3.46%
2.0%
-
Foreign exchange reserves declined by 20.96% from Dec 2013 to Dec 2014
Reserves have declined further by 10% as at March 2015
Drop in reserves attributed to drop in oil prices, weakened Naira and loss of investor
confidence
8.4% 8.0% 7.9 % 7.8% 8.2% 8.3% 8.0%
5.40%
5.94%
6.77% 6.21%
5.17%
6.54% 6.23%
2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Interest rates
91 day Treasury Bill Rate
1 Month Deposit Rate
30 Day NIBOR
18.0%
Reserves expected to stabilize and reverse its downward trend as oil prices stabilize
and the Naira finds its value after the upcoming elections
16.2%
16.0%
16.0%
14.52%
14.0%
13.0%
14.5%
10.9%
11.4%
11.4%
11.0%
12.0%
11.0%
11.1%
14.1%
10.8%
■ Naira
12.8%
10.0%
11.8%
11.6%
11.0% 11.9%
10.9%
10.0% 9.8%
7.5%
-
Following the sudden drop in oil prices, the Naira was devalued from N155/USD to
N168/USD at the official window in November 2014
8.0%
8.2%
7.5%
7.9%
10.2%
8.0%
8.3% 8.5%
8.4% 8.6%
7.6% 7.6%
7.8%
6.0%
-
Following the closure of the RDAS window, the Naira was further devalued from
N168/USD to N199/USD, resulting in a 22.11% official devaluation since December 31st
2013
4.0%
2.0%
2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013. 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014
Q1
Q2
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Q4
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Source: Central Bank of Nigeria
Exchange rates and crude oil price per barrel
■ Inflation
Despite severe deterioration of other major indices inflation has remained in single
digit averaging 8.0% in Q4 2014 (7.9% in Q4 2013), however some deterioration is
expected in 2015 as a result of the devaluation
■ Oil Prices
-
Oil prices bottomed out at $41.16/bl in January 2015 and appear to have stabilized
with an upward bias. At current price levels of >$60/bl, we expect the Naira and
related indices to likewise achieve stability following post election adjustments
Elections
Free and fair elections expected to hold on March 28th 2015
GTBank
$/bl
BRENT CRUDE PRICE
CBN($/R)
160
$/N
175
140
170
120
165
100
80
160
60
155
40
150
20
0
145
4-Jan-13
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4-Sep-13
4-Jan-14
4-May-14
4-Sep-14
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