Outlook Projection FY 2023-24

2005-06 Economic Impact on General Revenue... Fiscal Year Jan 2022 Adj Forecast 27074.8 August 2022 Forecast Incremental Difference Growth $ % Growth 8.4% 2006-07 26404.1 -2.5% 2007-08 24112.1 -8.7% 2008-09 21025.6 -12.8% 2009-10 21523.1 2.4% 2010-11 22551.6 4.8% 2011-12 23618.8 4.7% 2012-13 25314.6 7.2% 2013-14 26198.0 3.5% 2014-15 27681.1 5.7% 2015-16 28325.4 2.3% 2016-17 29594.5 4.5% 2017-18 31218.2 5.5% 2018-19 33413.8 7.0% 2019-20 31366.2 -6.1% 2020-21 36280.9 15.7% 2021-22 40,189.8 44,035.7 3,845.9 7,754.8 21.4% 2022-23 38,549.4 41,998.2 3,448.8 (2,037.5) -4.6% 2023-24 40,683.9 42,508.4 1,824.5 510.2 1.2% 2024-25 42,141.8 43,838.3 1,696.5 1,329.9 3.1% 2025-26 43,318.4 44,682.8 1,364.4 844.5 1.9% 2026-27 44,766.8 45,880.7 1,113.9 1,197.9 2.7% 2027-28 n/a 47,170.3 n/a 1,289.6 2.8% The new forecasts for the national and state economies adopted in July 2022 notably lowered many of the economic metrics relative to those adopted in December 2021, largely as a result of the war in Ukraine's effects on the global economy and a significant upward shift in the level of inflation. Of note, the risk associated with the national economic forecast is skewed to the downside, with almost equal probabilities that the new forecast will unfold as predicted or fall short of expectations. Economic disruption is still evident, with challenges including the end of significant federal monetary and fiscal stimulus provided during the early years of the pandemic, the rapid drawdown of some personal savings over the past year, the elevated use of credit over the past few months, the continued normalization of spending on services and away from taxable goods, and strong inflationary pressures on households. Nonetheless, revenue collections since January 2022 far exceeded expectations and the economic fundamentals, confounding the ability to predict the impact and timing of key turning points. 7

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