KASIKORNBANK Financial Overview
K
EXCELLENCE
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
Operating Environment: Economic Outlook for 2013
Key GDP Forecasts and Assumptions
7.8
6.5
3.8-4.3
0.1
10.0
7.0
4.0
1.0
-2.0
-5.0
-2.3
2009
2010
2011
% YoY
2011
2012
2012
2013F
2013F
Range Base
Case
Key Points:
■ Private consumption and investment are expected to
grow, albeit at a sharply decelerating rate
■Due to an economic slowdown in China, Thailand's main
export destination, and weak global sentiment, a robust
recovery is unlikely in Thai exports in 2H13. Thus,
exports are expected to expand rather modestly in 2013
■Given this weaker economic outlook, GDP growth
forecast for 2013 was revised down to 4.0% (base case)
with the forecast range between 3.8%-4.3%
GDP
0.1
6.5
3.8-4.3
4.0
Private Consumption
1.3
6.7
2.3-2.8
2.6
Total Investment
3.3
13.2
2.8-3.8
3.3
Gov. Budget Deficit (% of GDP)*
-3.3
-2.8
-2.9 to -2.2
-2.7
Risk Factors:
Exports
14.3
3.2
2.0-7.0
4.0
Imports
24.9
7.8
3.5-9.0
5.7
Current Account (USD bn)
5.9
2.7
-2.1 to 0.7
-0.5
Headline Inflation
3.8
3.0
2.2-2.7
2.5
Policy Interest Rate**
3.25
2.75
2.50
2.50
■Lingering global economic uncertainties, especially China
■Geopolitical risks
■Uncertainties in domestic politics and progress in the
public investment plan
Note: * Does not include borrowing under the emergency decree for water resource management
Source: KResearch (as of June 28, 2013) and **KBank Capital Markets Research (as of June 21, 2013)
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5
K
EXCELLENCE
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
Operating Environment: Economic Outlook for 2013
Government Stimulus Plan (App. pages 89-99)
Uncertainties remain regarding the implementation of Water Resource Management and the infrastructure development project.
Satisfactory progress in the disbursement of these extra-budgetary funds in 2013 is not expected, however, there is a high degree
of hope that these projects will be fully implemented in the next and subsequent years
Outlook on Europe, the US, China, and ASEAN
☐
Global economic growth is expected to modestly rise:
> The Eurozone should experience progress in measures which are already in the pipeline, such as the establishment of a banking union.
This development, plus existing financial supports, should help prevent the Eurozone from slipping into a severe economic spiral
➤ The US may experience headwinds from sequestration and the expiration of payroll tax cut measures before gaining traction in 2H13
➤ The Chinese economy recently revealed weakness underlying its banking system. Meanwhile, the subdued global economy seems to be
suppressing its exports
➤ ASEAN economies will likely resume their recovery, given the benefits of regional economic integration as well as their flexibility in
pushing forward fiscal and monetary policies needed to withstand impacts from lingering global economic uncertainties
Outlook on Inflation (App. pages 103 and 105)
☐
Headline inflation is benign in 2013 as a result of:
➤ Stable oil prices
➤ Baht appreciation, which may reduce production costs as well as import prices
> Continuation of government measures to assist cost of living (i.e. LPG subsidy for household use and reduction of excise tax on diesel)
Outlook on Exports and Tourism (App. pages 104 and 106-107)
☐
Exports will slightly expand, due mainly to subdued global economic sentiment and China's slowdown
☐ Tourism will likely register double-digit growth, supported by an increasing number of Chinese tourists, as well as regional
integration
Outlook on CAPEX cycle (App. page 108)
☐
Capacity utilization is unlikely to improve, consistent with a weak MPI. This is mainly due to weak external demand for Thai exports,
especially those in the global supply chain. Hence, the new investment cycle may be delayed, pending FDI flow
Baht (App. page 101)
☐ Thai Baht will stay under depreciation pressure in the near-term due to portfolio outflows, larger trade deficits, and global market
risk aversion; the Baht looks oversold and will likely rebound to 30.00 by year-end as the market reassesses Q.E. exit timing
Source: KResearch and KBank Capital Markets Research (as of June 28, 2013)
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