Canadian Banking and Residential Mortgages Overview
80
60
85
90
CA: Consumer and Business Activity
110
Index, 2019Q4 = 100
105
Jan 13, 2020 forecast
100
95
95
GDP Getting Back on Track
Business Confidence - CFIB Business Barometer
80
index, 50 stronger
60
Jan. 19, 2022 forecast
50
50
19Q4
20Q1
Key Economic Indicators
180 index, Feb 2020 levels = 100
20Q2
2003
Source: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics Canada.
2004
21Q1
21Q2
21Q3
21Q4
22Q1
22Q2
22Q3
2204
23Q1
23Q2
23Q3
23Q4
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
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Feb-20
Mar-20-
Apr-20
May-20-
Jun-20
Jul-20-
Aug-20-
Sep-20
Oct-20-
Nov-20
Dec-20-
Jan-21-
Feb-21-
Feb-21-
Mar-21.
Apr-21
May-21-
Auto Sales
⚫Mfg Shipments
Exports
Housing Starts
Retail Sales
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Bloomberg.
Jun-21.
Jul-21
Aug-21-
Sep-21.
Oct-21.
Nov-21
Dec-21
Jan-22
Employment
Manufacturing PMI
80
85
90
30
40
70
70
20
T
11
12
13
14
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, CFIB.
105
Feb. 2020=100
100
95
Headline index
3-month moving
average
6-month moving
average
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
Labour Market Recovery
Canada Has Recovered Lost Jobs
Canada's Labour Force Participation Rate
Feb-20-
Apr-20-
Jun-20-
Aug-20-
Oct-20-
Dec-20-
Feb-21
Apr-21-
Jun-21-
Aug-21-
Oct-21-
Dec-21-
Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Statistics Canada.
59
60
61
Feb-20
66
%
65
64
63
62
Apr-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Jun-21
Aug-21]
Oct-21
66
99
Dec-21]View entire presentation