RBC Financial Performance Update
IFRS 9 range of macroeconomic scenario assumptions (as of April 30)
Range of alternative scenarios (April 30, 2021)
Base case (April 30, 2021)
Canada Real GDP ($ Trillions) (1)
11
Base case (January 31, 2021)
Base case (October 31, 2020)
Canada Unemployment Rate (%) (3)
2.5
2.4
2.3
33
2.2
2.1
2.0
1.9
Q4-2020
Q1-2021
Q3-2021
Q4-2021
Q2-2021
U.S. Real GDP (US$ Trillions) (2)
Q1-2022
Q2-2022
Q3-2022
Q4-2022
Q1-2023
Q2-2023
Q3-2023
Q4-2023
Q1-2024
Q2-2024
Q3-2024
Q4-2024
Q1-2025
Q2-2025
Q3-2025
22.0
21.5
21.0
20.5
20.0
19.5
19.0
18.5
18.0
Q2-2023
Q4-2025
Q1-2026
7
Q1-2024
Q2-2024
Q3-2024
Q4-2024
Q1-2025
Q2-2025
5
Q2-2024
Q3-2024
Q4-2024
Q1-2025
Q2-2025
Q3-2025
Q4-2025
Q1-2026
Q4-2020
Q1-2021
Q2-2021
Q3-2021
Q4-2021
Q1-2022
Q2-2022
Q3-2022
10
U.S. Unemployment Rate (%) (3)
Q2-2023
Q4-2022
Q1-2023
Q3-2023
Q4-2023
Q1-2024
Q3-2025
Oil price (West Texas Intermediate in US$)
Q4-2020
Q1-2021
Q2-2021
Q3-2021
Q4-2021
Q1-2022
Q2-2022
Q3-2022
*Q4-2022
Q1-2023
Q4-2025
Q1-2026
8
6
4
2
Q3-2021
Q4-2021
Q1-2022
Q2-2022
Q3-2022
Q4-2022
Q1-2023
Q2-2023
Q3-2023
Q4-2023
Q1-2024
Canadian housing price index
Q4-2020
Q1-2021
Q2-2021
Q2-2024
Q3-2024
Q4-2024
Q1-2025
Q2-2025
Q3-2025
Q4-2025
Q1-2026
In our base forecast, we expect housing prices to increase by 3.0% over
the next 12 months, with a compound annual growth rate of 3.7% for the
following 2 to 5 years. The range of annual housing price growth (contraction)
in our alternative downside and upside scenarios is (29.6)% to 10.9% over the
next 12 months and 4.2% to 11.1% for the following 2 to 5 years.
RBC
For further details, referto Note 5 of our Q2 2021 Report to Shareholders. (1) Represents the seasonally-adjusted annual rate indexed to 2012 Canadian dollars over the calendar quarters presented.
(2) Represents the seasonally-adjusted annual rate indexed to 2012 U.S. dollars over the calendarquarters presented. (3) Represents the average quarterly unemployment level over the period.
In our base forecast, we expect oil prices to average $61 per barrel over
the next 12 months and $53 per barrel in the following 2 to 5 years. The
range of average prices in our alternative downside and upside scenarios is
$25 to $74 per barrel for the next 12 months and $35 to $55 per barrel for
the following 2 to 5 years.
27 | RISK REVIEWView entire presentation