Investor Presentaiton
National Economic Growth Improved
Strong GDP Growth¹
%
QoQ
- YoY
7.0
5.0
3.27
3.31
3.14
4.03.19
3.09
3.06
3.0
1.0 0.04
4.97
5.05
(0.74)
(0.42)
2020 2021
9.50
°
• National economic improvements observed since the third quarter of 2020 have persisted, with
data published by BPS-Statistics Indonesia confirming a shallower -0.74% (yoy) contraction in
the first quarter of 2021 compared with -2.19% (yoy) in the fourth quarter of 2020. Domestic
economic recovery momentum is building on the back of rapid external sector gains in
response to the stronger global economic recovery and ongoing acceleration of fiscal stimuli.
Economic gains in Indonesia have been recorded across nearly all GDP components on the
expenditure side and economic sectors. Exports expanded for the first time since the Covid-
19 pandemic befell Indonesia, growing 6.74% (yoy) after contracting -7.21% (yoy) in the
previous period. The significant improvement was primarily driven by demand in Indonesia's
main trading partners, namely China and the United States. Meanwhile, positive external sector
developments and stronger investment performance edged up import growth to 5.27% (yoy).
Government consumption accelerated to 2.96% (yoy) in line with the realisation of fiscal stimuli
in the form of procurement, capital spending and social assistance disbursements. Investment
is also showing signs of improvement, recording a shallower -0.23% (yoy) contraction compared
with -6.15% (yoy) in the previous period. On the other hand, consumption in the household
sector and non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) remains subdued at -2.23% (yoy)
and -4.53% (yoy) respectively given the mobility restrictions ongoing in several regions. By
sector, most economic sectors are seeing improvements,
led by Information and
Communication, Water Supply as well as Health Services. Spatially, national economic growth
momentum is supported by all regions, with Sulawesi-Maluku-Papua (Sulampua) moving into
expansionary territory since the fourth quarter of 2020.
• Looking forward, Bank Indonesia expects economic growth to continue building momentum in
line with the promising global economic recovery outlook and ongoing policy stimuli. An
orderly vaccination program rollout and disciplined application of Covid-19 protocols are still
required to accelerate the recent domestic demand gains. To that end, Bank Indonesia will
continue to strengthen policy coordination with the Government and Financial System Stability
Committee, including implementation of the Integrated Policy Package, to support the ongoing
national economic recovery.
Growth Prospect
-1.0
(0.16)
(0.36)
(0.30)
(0.41)
(4.19)
-3.0
(1.73)
(2.07)
(1.81)
(1.70)
(0.52)
(1.69)
(0.96)
(1.74)
(2.41
(3.49)
-5.0
(5.32)
-7.0
៩៩៩
6683
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Favourable GDP Growth Compared to Peers²
15.00
% yoy
10.00
5.00
6.89
5.40
5.15
Institutions
3.90
2021 GDP
growth (% YoY)
2021 Budget
5.0
Bank Indonesia
3.5-4.3
IMF (WEO, July 2021)
3.9
World Bank (Global Economic Prospects, June 2021)
ADB (ADO, July 2021)
4.4
4.1
4.0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
0.00
2012
-5.00
-10.00
-15.00
Bulgaria
Colombia
India
Indonesia
Philippines
1. Source: Central Bureau of Statistics of Indonesia (BPS), Including non-profit household consumption Consensus Forecast (July 2021)
**
2.
Source: World Economic Outlook Database - July 2021;
indicates estimated figure
54
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