Investor Presentaiton
2 Attractive Market Dynamics
Supportive long-term demand drivers and short-term supply constraints
Demand
■ Fundamental, long-term driver of MOP demand is food consumption which is
driven by population and income growth
■ Food consumption and changes in dietary preferences are reliable and slow-moving
■ Increasing potash application rates to support higher yields and offset depleting soil
fertility (particularly in China where application rates are lower)
World population
Billions of people
7.1
0.9%
1.0%
1.2%
8.3
7.9
7.5
◉
Demand is largely uncorrelated to most other mined commodities (e.g., metals)
Supply
2012
2017
2022
2027
Timing and quantity of additional short-term supply from existing producers is
uncertain
Capital intensity of traditional new supply makes investment decision challenging
for large greenfield expansions beyond known projects and creates steep
inducement curve
World GDP/capita
2022-US$/capita
■ Russia's war in Ukraine is leading to supply disruptions in the potash market over
the short-to-medium term as a result of international sanctions
0.3%
4.6%
4.3%
16,854
13,447
10,735
10,903
■ Before the war, >50% of global supply additions between 2022-26 were expected to
come from Russia - realization of these additions is becoming less certain
Source: CRU; International Monetary Fund; World Bank
2012
2017
2022
2027
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