Solar Market and Cost Analysis
U.S. Generation Capacity Additions (GWac)
U.S. Generation Capacity Additions by Source:
2010-2021 and Planned 2022-2023
70
0
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
20
20
10
0
Avg. (2010-2014)
Avg. (2015-2019)
2020
2021
2022
2023
Other
Nuclear
Natural Gas (Other)
Natural Gas CT
•
Natural Gas CC
Batteries
Wind
DPV
UPV
- 61%
Began operating
through November
2022
Planned December
2022 and full 2023
.
EIA estimates the percentage of U.S. electric
capacity additions from solar will grow from 43% in
2021 (19 GWac) to 52% in 2022 (21 GWac), and
61% (41 GWac) in 2023.
-
Wind accounts for 9%, batteries 15%, and nuclear 3% of
estimated capacity in 2023.
Natural gas accounts for the remaining 10% in 2023.
EIA's January 2023 estimate for PV capacity
additions in 2023 (41 GWac) is 8 GWac (24%)
higher than EIA's August 2022 estimate, which was
made immediately before passage of the IRA.
Wood Mackenzie and SEIA also increased their
2023 PV deployment estimate after passage of the
IRA, but their December estimates are only about
half of the EIA estimate for 2023 because of
ongoing supply chain constraints.
Owing to those constraints, Wood Mackenzie and SEIA
expect the full benefits of the IRA will only be realized
in 2024 or later.
Sources: EIA Form 860M/Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory ("Planned" and "Operating" Nov 2022); EIA Short-term Energy Outlook
Table 8b, Jan 2023; Wood Mackenzie and SEIA, Q4 2022 US Solar Market Insight, Sept 2022.
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